COMMENTARY 4/17/17

St Louis river level STEADY~ at 21.2′ and forecast 22.0 by 4/20.  (Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′)

CORN

DOWN 4

Softer on failure to rain despite forecasts and lead to the planting of corn. The forecast looks somewhat drier than previous models but analysts are leaving their forecasts unchanged until mid week.  Barge freight was quiet today as shippers remain comfortable and logistics seem to be improving with river levels dropping back down slowly.  Export Inspections were on the high side at 52.3 mill bu vs expectations of 43-55. This week Japan took 17.3 and W Hemisphere took 27 mill. The Buenos Aires Exchange ests Argentina’s harvest now 18% complete, up 3% and close to last year’s 19%. China still has a 250 MMT surplus and most markets across the US are firming as producers are worried less about selling corn and more about planting corn. Planting progress this am came in at 6% out of the main 18 states, behind the 5 year average of 9%. NE, CO, and TX are equivalent to their 5 yr avg. IL was 12% this time last year.

 

BEANS

DOWN 2

Two sided following corn and meal lower.  The market found early strength on concerns of a wet April.  The forecast, however looks drier than previously thought which caused futures to set back. Export Inspections were 15.8 mill bu for the week, a bit low vs expectations. Funds sold 3k contracts of beans, 4k contracts of meal, yet buyers of 4.5k contracts of bean oil. The Mar NOPA Crush report was out today and bearish with expectations lower for the second month in a row.  Crush too was 153.1 mill, some 3.5 mill bu below the avg guess and oil stocks came in at 1.815 billion pounds, up from Feb, but down from 2016.

WHEAT

DOWN 9

The big crop is under pressure despite supportive features.  It is cold/wet in the Canadian Prairie and still have standing from snow melt which could slow spring wheat planting. The EU, on the other hand, is dry with Spain in the process of heading.  The Weekly Crop ratings increased one to 54% G/E and vs 53% last week and 57% last year.   Some 19%  is headed vs average and spring wheat planting is est at 13%, up from 5% last week and a 5 year avg of 21%.