COMMENTARY 4/16/18

Colder than normal for most of the US this week.  That big system over the weekend arrived as promised (though late) dumping snow on the N and getting another foot in the door in presenting the coldest April in 124 yrs. Temps are expected to rebound next week and into the end of the month. The Plains are also expected to receive some much needed moisture as 48% of US HRW production received less than half of its normal precipitation in the last 180 days.

CORN

DOWN 4

Wheat led the way lower today on a wetter forecast. The forecast for yc though looks drier for late April giving less concern for planting. Funds were sellers of 7,000 contracts.  Monday’s Export Inspections were nice at 59.2 vs expectations of 43 – 63 mill bu and 56.2 needed per week.  China took 5.2, Africa 7.2, and the W Hemi 25.4 mill.  US planting this afternoon was THOUGHT to be 4% complete…..and was a little disappointing, see actuals just below.  Over the weekend the freight system DID have a chance to catch its breath, allowing the cost of freight to decrease significantly.  Freight IS still hard to find and expensive N of STL. Time will tell how long that will hold OR if rain makes trucks easier to run with the farmer knocked out of the field.

US YC PLANTED:   3% TW,  2% LW, 6% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 5% LY, and 5% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 12

Fund selling!  Nopa Crush was huge but the market seemed unimpressed and seemed more focused on the fact that corn acres NOT being planted could lead to more beans. March Crush was a RECORD 171.9 mill.  That’s 3.7 more than the avg trade guess!  Oil stocks came in 16 mill pounds below the avg guess at 1.946 bill.  Meal use (domestic) was up 11% from last month and up 26% from last year!  Export Inspections were 16.4 vs expectations of 11 -22 and 25.4 needed per week.  China was nearly nonexistent.  Big buyers were Egypt and Mexico.   In SA, due to rising export premiums and a weaker Real,  Celeres ests Brazil producers 47% sold, up from 45% last week and compares to 48% last year and 55% avg.  AgRural has them 85% harvested, up from 77% last week, 87% last year, and 84% avg.  Some analysts are now expecting Argentina to import as much as 4 MMT of beans from Mar 18 to Feb 19 with as much as 600 K coming from the good ol US!

Wheat

DOWN 10

The market has rain in its nostrils and spring wheat planting is not going well.  Rains are in the forecast for the drought-stricken Plains for this coming weekend.  Today’s Export Inspections were hearty at 17.7 vs expectations of 7 – 18 mill.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   31% TW,  30% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    54% TW,  50% LW, and 74% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     9% TW,  3% LW, 18% LY, and 10% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    3% TW,  3% LW, 3% LY, and 1% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   3% TW, 2% LW, 12% LY, and 15% AVG