COMMENTARY 4/12/18

GREAT WEATHER!!  But they say it won’t last.  Several large systems pass through the next 10-15 days.  Temps should be slightly below normal and April is likely to rank among the coldest since 1895 for the Corn Belt and N Plains.  In SA, showers are expected for the N half of their double crop corn while the S stays relatively dry. Logistics-wise, too much grain moving.  Nearby freight continues to be on a terror as loaded barges in the Gulf are slow to be emptied making empties in the N hard to come by AND EXPENSIVE.  Basis levels took a tumble today accordingly and we MAY see RECORD high freight values to come, until the farmer goes to the field.

CORN

UP 2

Decent export sales riding on the back side of beans.  Sales were a bit sloppy at 33.1 mill compared to the 35 -55 mill bu range, but still decent when considering we only need 15.6 per week to keep up with the Usda’s est.  Big buyers were Vietnam, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and some Unknown actually cancelled 17 mill. (WONDER who that was?)

 

BEANS              

UP 13

Folks in the world ARE demanding beans and YES, from the US.  US carryout MAY be getting ready to drop below 500 mill bu.  Thurs’s Export Sales were strong again with old crop at 55.5 mill vs expectations of  33-51 and just a puny 5.6 per week from here on out!  China DID buy 9.4 mill and another 24.5 mill bu went to Unknown (Makes one wonder if that was China).  Mexico and Egypt were good buyers.   New crop was decent too at 35 mill vs expectations of 15 -22.  China and Unknown was 30 mill of that total.  The Usda’s 17/18 export forecast of 2.065 bill bu APPEARS is COULD be 60 light.  Product sales were also hearty with Meal at 317k vs expectations of 150-400 and only 73 needed per week. Big buyers here were Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Unknown.  Chit-chatter has Argentine crushers buying 400K MT of US beans for 18/19 vs 240 reported and the thought that another 1 – 2 MMT will be bought. <- Note those ARE new crop.

 

 

Wheat

DOWN 6

Rain and snow are forecast for the N Plains!  Our NICE weather ends after tomorrow followed by a freeze for all HRW areas over the weekend.  The Plains are now forecast to get 1 – 2″  of rain including some heavy snow for the N.  Most rain and snow should miss the REALLY drought-stricken HRW.  A half to 1.5” of rain is expected for the HRW  in the Plains after next week.  Today’s Export Sales did not help support the wetter forecast.  An old crop at 4.4 mill was found to be weak vs expectations of 6 – 13 mill.  New crop too were puny at 2.5 mill vs expectations of 4 – 11.