As more terminals come back on line following the high water, so does the DEMAND for barge freight. (The Smithland Lock on the OH River is still closed though Mon)  In weather is also the chief topic in SA!  Despite some scattered showers in Arg, the drought intensifies over next week. HOWEVER, storm chances HAVE increased for NEXT weekend producing 1” to 3” of rain within March 16-19.  The wettest areas are expected to be Entre Rios and N Santa Fe.  A similar system is expected to break the drought in Rio Grande do Sul starting as early as Wed bringing significant accums, adding up to significant life changing improvements for the dry crop.



DOWN 3      

Folks have been selling that $4.00 corn in style!  Freight is taking it on the chin accordingly.  Funds were sellers of approx. 7,000 contracts.On the bright side, there was another 260 K MT corn sold to Unknown.  In SA CONAB lowered its Brazil crop 700 K MT 87.3.  The USDA was ½ MMT lower yesterday at 94.5.  Producers are reducing planted acres AND the inputs needed for the safrinha crop where yields are already expected to be 1.9% lower.  Acres are expected to be down 5.9% at 11.4 mill HA.  Compares to last year’s 12.1 mill.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 63% TW (67% LW), Bearish 13% (11% LW), Neutral 25% (22%LW)



DOWN 25 

Rain in the forecast for Argentina! -a bit far out, but what the hay?  Funds sold some 25,000 contracts of beans this afternoon!  Rains though far out, if they come, are still thought to help the bean crop.  That hasn’t shaken demand any either as another 183 K MT was sold to China and 205K MT sold to Unknown.  China bought some  55-60 cargoes of beans last week.  How many were old US beans?  Then, watch how many come out of the US after yesterday’s 90-some mill bu export sales?!  The BA Exchange lowered the Arg crop 2 MMT to 42.0.  The USDA lowered their est from 54.0, to 47.0 MMT. That 5 MMT difference is a HUGE chunk.  CONAB increased Brazil’s crop 1.5 to 113.0 MMT and the USDA raised their est up 1 to 113.0 as well.  If this pattern continues we’ll be seeing MORE out of China DIRECTLY.  Ag  Rural est’s Brazil harvest is 48% complete vs 56% last year and compares to a 5 yr avg of 46%.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 44% TW (56% LW), Bearish 31% (22% LW), Neutral 25% (22% LW)




Weakness in beans carried over.  Caused some Fund selling of significance too.  Still not much relief in the weather outlook for the US, although, the temps are getting WARMER, which will bring the parched seedling out of dormancy potentially putting MORE pressure on the already deteriorating crop ratings!   Our HRW areas do have SOME chance of some scattered showers, but, most are N and E of the driest areas in the SW.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 60 TW (61% LW), Bearish 13% (11% LW), Neutral 27% (28% LW)