COMMENTARY 3/8/18

River conditions continue to stabilize although movement is still keeping nearby freight values enflamed.  Most stations on the IL River are now able to load barges.  The Smithland Lock on the Oh River will be closed until March 12.  In SA, some 2″ of rain would be normal in the next 10 days but only a half to and inch is likely this weekend.

 

CORN                            

UP 6                                                           

Started steady and had TREMENDOUSLY strong Export Sales.  Sales of 73.1 mill vs expectations of 39 – 59 mill and only 18.6 needed per week gave things a firm start.  Then at 11 when the Usda came out it showed carry out 225 mill smaller at 2.127 that’s nearly 100 mill below the low end trade guess.  A surprising increase in exports of  175 mill bu, now totaling 2.225 billion, just 68 mill below last year. Exports (noted by sales) have been on a tear of late and just what we needed to help consume the giant crop.  The avg guess of est ranged from 2.240 to a high of 2.352 bill.  World ending stocks were smaller going from 203.09 to 199.17.  The USDA had Brazil’s crop at 94.5, ½ MMT below last month with the trade looking for more like 91.6 MMT. Arg is est at 36 MMT, down 3 from last month and ½ MMT below the average trade guess.

 

 BEANS              

DOWN 1    

Nothing big in the overnight and the am was weak, but beans took a lesson from corn on Export Sales.  This week sales of a WHOPPING 92.2 mill vs expectations of 33-51 and 15.8 needed per week were pretty hot.  THAT was even more interesting when the USDA report came out stifled things a bit as the carry out was actually increased by 25 mill at 555 due to a DECREASE in exports.  HA!  World ending stocks were lowered from 98.14 to 94.4.  Crop size in Argentina was lower but not to the extent expected and that placed some pressure on the complex.  By the same token, Brazil’s crop was increased but not as much as expected so there will likely be more changes on the way in the future!

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Quiet with most of the market focused on the SA row crops. Global wheat stocks climbed 2.8 MMT to a record 269 MMT and 1 MMT more than the top end of trade guestimates. Export Sales were decently supportive at 14.4 mill bu vs expectations of 7 -18 mill and 11.9 mill needed.  Dry US weather still remains an issue!