COMMENTARY 3/5/18

A few showers over the weekend for the driest areas of Central Argentina.  Another chance for storms are likely for NEXT weekend producing up to an inch in the S and 2″ in the N.  Some 3″ is normal for this time period.   S Brazil stays this next week followed by a stormy period, while the N areas should turn wetter in the next 10 days to two weeks. Back home in the US there’s still a very low chance for some rain next week in driest HRW wheat areas.

CORN

UP 2

Argentine export worries vsn exports that could have been larger.  Export Inspections were mid-range at 37.3 vs expectations of 31 -43 and 50.2 needed per week now. Milo Inspections were hefty at 13.3, up from just 2.4 last week with only 5.5 per week needed.  Brazil planting progress still behind as AgRual est’s 63%, 12 points behind last yr but just one behind their 5 yr avg.  Looks as if some 4 mill HA will likely be planted past the ideal planting window of March 1.  The USDA is now reducing their est for the Argentine crop 2.5 MMT to 36.5. They’re also taking their World Ending Stocks down 4.2 to 198.8 MMT.  US ending stocks are expected to decline 39 mill bu to 2.313 billion last month. The next report will be out THIS Thurs.  You should also be aware of an Argentine grain truckers are on an “indefinite” strike for …….better rates.

 

BEANS

UP 6

Argentine weather and good exports.  There was another sales announcement of 198 K MT to China and 121 K MT to Unknown. Monday’s Export Inspections were BETTER than expected at 36.4 vs expectations of 22-33 and 26 per week needed.  China was just 9.4 ( vs 17.3 last yr) but big amounts went to the EU, 6.0, and SE Asia and Middle East, as well as 12.9 mill to N Africa!  Safras est’s Brazil’s harvest at 30% complete, up from 24.4% last week but still below their 5 yr avg of 39%…..and 16 below last year.  AgRural’s est is 35% complete.  The Pres of China’s New Hope Group, hopes a trade war with the US can be avoided.  Thursday’s report has US Stocks a mill bu lower at 529 mill bu. Argentina’s Prod is thought to be 48.5, from 54 last month and Brazil at 113.9.

 

WHEAT

UP 9

The long term weather outlook is STILL dry for the Plains.  Export Inspections were weakly at 14.7 vs expectations of 12-19 and below the 21.6 needed each week.