COMMENTARY 3/31/17

Cool and wet for next week!

St Louis river level RISING~ at 16.7′ and forecast 21.3by 4/4. 

CORN

UP 7

Funds did a little buying today to cover in their pre-report shorts.  The Plantings/Stocks report was supportive in that acres were lower than expected at 90.0 mill vs expectations of 90.9.  Carryout was 73 mill larger at 8.616 bill bu vs expectations of  8.543 bill.  The biggest acres changes were: TX down 15%, KY down 12%, MO down 11%, MN down 5%, NC down 5%, IA down 4.3%, MI down 4.2%, and IL down 2.6%. OH and IN were unchanged. KS acres were actually 2% higher.  In SA, Brazil Prod grew to 95.0 MMT from 91.0 and Argentina increased to 38.2 MMT from 35.2.  Next Mon we will have new Planting Progress numbers to examine.  Also, free hot dogs at Rural King are REALLY cutting down on rural productivity!  Anyone busy eatin’ shore aint busy working.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 17

Not so bullish of a report.  May fut have dropped over a dollar now for the month.  Acres came in at a record 89.5 mill, and extra 1.2 mill above expectations!  Every state had a higher expected number with exception to GA.  Carry Out Stocks were increased by 59 mill bu to 1.735 bill bu.  All this bearishness caused Funds to sell 14k contracts of beans, 8k meal, and 4k bean oil.  Commercials have nearly eradicated their big long position.  In SA, Brazil’s Prod was raised 3 to 111MMT and Argentina up 2.5 to 57.5 MMT.

 

WHEAT

UP 5

The month of Mar has had wheat down 30 cents.  Not a lot of excitement in the report.  As anticipated acres were lower from 50.2 to 46.1 mill and in line with expectations.  Carry Out increased from 1.372 to 1.655 bill bu.  Slightly cooler temps are expected for the next week and precip is expected as well. We don’t need any shocking freezes to damagejointing.