COMMENTARY 3/31/14

NOTE TO THOSE HAULING TO CARGILL & BUNGE – SEE TERMINAL HOURS – REGARDING NEW ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs

 

CORN

UP 10

Todays USDA report was slightly bullish vs trade expectations.  Intended plantings were 91.7 million, 1.2 mill below the 92.9 average trade estimate. Another private estimate was at 93.8 million.  (Last year’s figure was 95.37 million.)  Informa’s estimate was 93.0.

Stocks/Carry Out was 7.006 billion, 104 mill below the average trade estimate of 7.110 and another private estimate was at 7.152 billion. (Last year’s number was 5.400 bbu.)  Informa’s stocks est was 6.82 – 7.74 billion.

The China province Tianjin rejected its 1st cargo of US corn, a 21800MMT shipment. Due to the presence of the MIR 612 gene from Syngenta.  Syngenta claims it is high prices that is causing China to reject unapproved US corn with their trait in it, not their fault.  China then replaced it by buying two cargos from the Ukraine.  The problem is getting worse.   You didn’t even have to plant the dreaded gene to have it affect you negatively.

River levels now steady and holding!   Freight costs are now some 30 cents/bu cheaper than what they were 25 days ago.  St Louis river level now at +8.3 ft and forecast to rise to 8.7 by 4/05.

 

BEANS

OLD ~ UP 27    NEW ~ DOWN 4

Today’s report was considered bearish vs trade expectations but supportive news for corn may have trimmed the downside.  USDA’s intended bean acreage was 81.5 million acres, 100,000 acres above the average trade estimate of 81.4 million. Avg trade guess had a range of 78.5 – 83.6.  Stocks/Carry Out was 992 million, 3 million above the average trade estimate of 989 million bu.  Farm Futures called for record US bean plantings forecast at 82.9 million acres.

Chinese crushers agree to cut purchases as domestic soybean meal supply/demand are creating volatility.

The old crop supply/demand issues are still not resolved and the market is not yet convinced that the old crop has been rationed, thus showing more firmness.

The US is 107% sold and 90% exported.  Both of these levels are unprecedented.  If we export all that has been sold, that would put C/O down to just 37 mill bu.  Still looking to see the US import both soybeans AND bean meal as it may  be cheaper to import them than it is to grow them.  Vessel waiting times at Paranagua are almost half of what it was this time last year.

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Mixed – USDA’s idea of plantings was 55.8 million acres and was slightly supportive, but fell short of the average trade estimate by 200,000 acres.  There was a 500,000 acre increase in Kansas but that was offset by a 300,000 acre decrease in Texas.  Stocks/Carry Out were slightly bearish, implying a modest 10 – 20 mbu reduction in feed/residual in next weeks WASDE report.

Short term ideas that the S Plains will still remain relatively dry in the Central/ Southern Plains.  Some areas in S CA, NW TX, and SW OK haven’t seen rain in some 60 days! Last week, 31% of the TX wheat crop is rated poor/very poor, which is down from 46% the week before.  Kansas crop saw their poor/very poor rating drop from 22% to 18%.

Canadian rail delays are forcing both wheat and canola south into the US, so far totaling over 60mbu from Aug through Jan.