COMMENTARY 3/30/16

Rain forecasts continue to be rather damp from the weekend forward, especially for the Corn Belt and Delta. This same wet system COULD also bring some much moisture to the driest areas of the S Plains.  In SA, a dry spell in Brazil’s winter corn areas is being watched.  Below normal rainfall seems in store for N Brazil for the next 10 – 14 days.  Widespread rain still slowing harvest for Argentina.  They should be especially wet Fri/Sat.

St Louis river level ~RISING @  ~ at 17.4′ and forecast 18.6′ by 4/4.

 CORN

DOWN 6

Still quiet with pre-report positioning. The Trade’s guesses for tomorrow’s March 1 Stocks -> average guess 7.801 in a range of 7.70-7.975 and vs last year’s 7.750.  The Acreage average est at 89.972 in an 89.0-91.0 range compares to 89.2 last year.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be healthy ranging from 31 – 39 mill bu for the week with 18.9 needed.  WASDE expects China’s 15/16 ending stocks to be 111 MMT, but some market sources suggest its more like 250 MMT.  Quality is a BIG issue.  Export potential could be limited if they REALLY have THAT MUCH left over.  CONAB is offering 26,700 MT of state owned corn up for auction in Goias and Mato  Grosso on Fri.  Funds are now LONG some 16,000 contracts (compared to a 27,000 contract SHORT last week).

 

BEANS     

DOWN 7

Profit-taking and pre-report positioning.  March 1  Stocks ->average guess 1.556 in a range of 1.425-1.625 and compares to 1.327 last year.  The Average Acreage guess is 83.057 in a range of 81.60-84.20 and compares to 84.058 last year and the last Ag Forum est of 82.5.  Some think Argentina’s bean acres could fall from 20.5 million HA this year to 19.4 in 16/17, if 2-3 MMT gets removed from production.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 11 – 22 mill bu with just 3.5 needed to meet the USDA’s numbers.

WHEAT          

DOWN 13

OUCH!  The wetter forecast lends chances for improved moisture with wide coverage for the dry S Plains.  Tomorrow’s Stocks are thought to be 1.356 in a range of 1.325-1.460 and 1.140 last year.  Acreage is expected to be 51.702 in a range of 50.669 – 54.845 and the most recent Ag Forum of 51.0.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 6 – 13 mill bu for the week.  One private believes Parana, Brazil’s wheat acres could drop 1.2 million hectares, and 11% drop, as high yc prices and low wheat milling demand will likely mean more yc planted.  At the same time, higher wheat seedings are expected in Argentina for 16/17 with an acreage increase from 3.7 to 4.6 million hectares according to Oil World.