COMMENTARY 3/29/18

Freight was higher today again, taking its toll on basis values!

With the passage of the omnibus spending bill, the 199A “Grain Glitch” was approved by Senate and signed by Pres Trump on Fri.  Producers can retroactively sell grain to private companies without a 20% reward to cooperatives.  THANKS for your support and positive attitudes as our elected officials sorted through the discourse!  

CORN

UP 14

The report is out!  Wow!  What a difference a day makes! Shrinking acres.  Not only was this report friendly, but bullish from an acreage perspective. The stocks at a 8.888 figure says the USDA may be at least 50 mill too high on its feed/residual forecast.  With the low acreage of 88.026 vs 89.0 and trend yields and usage estimates the 18/19 c/o looks to be in shape to drop 400 mill! Cotton acres went up from 12.233 to 13.469, a 1.236 mill acre increase.  (Wheat acres were also up1.28 mill at 47.3).  Any weather issue/planting delay could be significant!!  Export Sales, also out this am had no surprises and was in line at 53.3 vs expectations of 47 -59.  Lots of $4.00 O/N yc offers got hit on today’s rally! -finally a good place to start for fall!

BEANS              

UP 27

More surprises!!  Smaller acres in ysb too!  Acres were 88.892 vs last report of 89.482 and an avg guess of 91.06. The majority of the acreage drop was W of the Miss.  All acres were down 1.2 mill from last year.  Stocks were 2.107 vs 3.157 last report and avg guess of 2.030.  Export Sales on the other hand were disappointing at just 11.7 vs expectations of 22 -33 mill bu and 9.4 needed each week.

 

Wheat

UP 5

Conditions are still dry for the Plains.  Long range forecasts do have a better chance for accums.  On the report, Plantings of 47.3 mill acres was WAY above the average guess. Of the HRS acres, ND increased 1.05 mill alone!  Stocks of 1.494 bill bu were neutral and the Dec/Feb feed/residual was similar to expectations.  Export Sales were towards the upper end of the range at 13 mill vs expectations of 7 -15 and 10 needed per week.