COMMENTARY 3/29/17

Looks like the 180 day drought in the Plains has been neutralized with 2″ to 4″ of accum and more to come.  In SA, W Argentina’s forecast is getting wetter while Brazil’s double crop corn is expecting some showers and some drying, especially to the the S.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 11.3′ and forecast 20.8by 4/4. 

CORN

UP 1

Light activity as we await Fri’s report.  In the past, the USDA’s Mar planting totals have exceeded the trade average in 6/10 years.  Our US corn is cheaper than Argentins’s in May for S Korea and equally priced for June.  As we move into Aug, Arg and Brazil bu’s are $2-$3 cheaper.  Mexico has also been rumored to have bought 100K MT for July and Aug from Brazil.  Mo’s planting progress for our S states showed LA at 80% planted vs 48% avg, TX 45% vs 34%, AR is 19% vs 15%, and MS30% complete vs 19% avg.  Bloomberg’s acreage est is 90.9 mill acres on Fri.

BEANS     

DOWN 3

Weather is mixed for SA with S Brazil harvest moving at 70% complete and Argentina rains slowing harvest down with some flooding issues. Harvest pressure in Brazil has weakened basis levels there almost ten cents this week.  China bought 5 cargoes of Brazil beans today.  Exports for Mar are likely be a record of 10.5 MMT!  The weak Brazil Real, record crush, and record export sales ought to be weighing on demand.  The avg guess for Friday’s acres  is 88.3 mill acres.  Carry out at 1.676 bill bu.

WHEAT

UP 1

Quiet and 2-4″ of much needed rain for the Plains. Rain has likely came IN TIME to save yield potential and allow replacement of acres that were winter killed.