COMMENTARY 3/29/16

Widespread precip is on tap for the majority of the US through Thursday, especially for the already soaked Delta.  Additional amounts could be between 1 – 2.5″.  The HRW wheat areas need rain as the drought conditions intensify.  The next chance for significant rainfall late next week Apr 7-10. Some  53% of HRW wheat has been drier than normal over the last 90 days.  In SA, N Brazil will experience below normal precip the next 10-14 days, causing some stress potential for the winter corn and additional widespread precip won’t help the Argentine harvest, until we get into NEXT week.

St Louis river level ~RISING @  ~ at 16.7′ and forecast 18.4′ by 4/3.

 CORN

UP 2

Relatively quiet.  China is said to be dismantling its corn reserve program and has plans to auction off its 40-50 MMT of reserves in a few months. Some are expressing concerns over who will absorb the 20-25 MMT of feed grains and DDGS that China currently sources in the event that an import tax was imposed by the end of summer.  More to come.  Early planting numbers coming out of the South: AR 8% complete vs 20% ave, LA 36% complete vs 61% avg, MS 5% complete vs 29% ave.  So far, there is still about 290k acres unplanted out of 1.1 million that is normally already planted.  High prices in Brazil are causing localized feed shortages and created a 90 K MT purchase from Argentina.  Funds are now LONG some 16,000 contracts (compared to a 27,000 contract SHORT last week).

For the Mar 31st Report on Thurs, the Trade’s acreage estimate is 89.998 with a range of 89.0-92.0 and Stocks average is 7.798 in a range of 7.7 – 8.1 and vs 7.75 last year.

 

BEANS     

UP 7

Another round of fund buying helped to close beans near their highs on the day.  Funds bought over 8000 contracts!  …….and a weaker dollar today too.  Since the beginning of March, the Real has dropped more than 9% vs the US dollar. Farmers sales are thought to be at 70% in Brazil and 20% in Argentina.  Early yield est  are running at to above expectations in Argentina which may raise the size of their crop to over 60 MMT.  In the US, for Thur’s report, bean acres are expected to be 83.07 in a 81.5-84.1 range. That is up from 82.5 from the Outlook Forum.  Stocks are thought to be 230 mbu GREATER than last year at 1.557 bill bu.

 

WHEAT          

UP 6

C-c-c-c-cold, dry weather in the North and dry in the S Plains.  India extended its 25% duty on import wheat for another 3 months to protect farmers from low cost imports.  Argentine growers are expected to plant between 4.3 – 5 million hectares of wheat in 16/17. That would be up 14 to 33% from the USDA’s 3.77 MMT figure for 15/16.  Thursday’s report has the Trade’s Wheat Acreage at 51.665 in a range of  50.5 – 54.6, up from 51.0, but down 54.6 last year.  Their March 1  Stocks average guess is 1.354 bill bu in a range of 1.325 – 1.415 and vs 11.4 last year.