COMMENTARY 3/28/18

With the passage of the omnibus spending bill, the 199A “Grain Glitch” was approved by Senate and signed by Pres Trump on Fri.  Producers can retroactively sell grain to private companies without a 20% reward to cooperatives.  THANKS for your support and positive attitudes as our elected officials sorted through the discourse!  

CORN

UNCHANGED

Light pre-report positioning today.  Freight shot up again today taking basis down with it.  Export sales will be out first tomorrow am with yc expected to be 47 -59 mill with 18.7 needed per week from here out.  Due to dryness, some est for the Argentina crop are now as low as 29-31 MMT and compares to the USDA at 36!

BEANS              

DOWN 2

Quiet ahead of the report.  The President’s tariff initiative is working already! The China Ag Min haas initiated a meeting with the US to discuss ways to prevent any trade disruptions. Ah, the reality is settling in….there is NO room for shipping delays of any sort without causing SIGNIFICANT supply issues in China.  Export Sales are expected to be 22 -33 mll bu with 9.4 needed per week to meet USDA numbers.  How long can China continue book our additional old crop beans?  Unshipped sales to China are 20 mill greater this year but buying still needs to be 70% improved or 34 mill bu bigger than last year.  The answer may have to do with how good Argentina’s producers are at NOT selling their beans.  Farmer selling in the N and S Hemi IS currently quiet.  Agroconsult increased their Brazil crop estimate from 114.5 to 118.9 MMT.

 

Wheat

DOWN 3

Conditions are improving some for the S Plains, though ratings are still below average.  Mar 1 Stocks Reuters: 1.498 bill, Bloomberg: 1.493.  Plantings (all) Reuters: 46.297 mill, Bloomberg: 46.5, and Forum at 46.5.  Export Sales tomorrow are thought to be 7 – 15 mill.