COMMENTARY 3/28/17

Unusually heavy rain is now forecast for the S two thirds of the US for the next week to ten days as several systems work their way through.  This should increase the chance for moist accum for the Plains wheat and also add some much needed moist in the drier than normal corn belt.  In SA, W Argentina’s forecast is getting wetter while Brazil’s double crop corn is expecting some showers and some drying, especially to the the S.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 11.0′ and forecast 17.5by 4/3. 

CORN

UP 2

Fund buying helped support.  Big planting progress for our S states yesterday after noon!  LA 80% vs 48% avg, TX 45% vs 34%, AR is 19% vs 15%, and MS30% complete vs 19% avg.  Bloomberg’s acreage est is 90.9 mill acres on Fri.

BEANS     

UNCHANGED

Brazil is 70% harvested according to Safras, 7% ahead of last year AND and the five year average. Farmer selling is still below average there and it feels like the big SA crop may be figured in to the market. Friday’s acres above/below the average guess @ 88.3 mill acres and lots of beans still left in the country with the Carry out at 1.676 bill bu.  We’re waiting….

 

WHEAT

UP 4

Rain has started moving across the driest parts of the HRW belt. Some forecasts are still expecting a month’s worth of rain in the next 3 days. This has been the driest Oct thru April for W KS in twenty years.  Next week we’ll get comprehensive USDA ratings.