COMMENTARY 3/28/16

Widespread precip is on tap for the majority of the US through Thursday, especially for the already soaked Delta.  The driest areas of the Plains look to be left out as well, leaving the next chance for significant rainfall late next week Apr 7-10. Some  53% of HRW wheat has been drier than normal over the last 90 days.  In SA, heavy rain helped Brazil’s winter corn, but should turn off drier and warmer for the next ten days. Argentine producers should have some harvest delays Thu – Sat and into next week.

St Louis river level ~RISING @  ~ at 16.1′ and forecast 18.5′ by /2.

 CORN

UNCHANGED

Little news with carry over from the higher wheat board. Monday’s Export Inspections were better than thought at 38.5 vs 30-37 mill bu expected.  Big numbers went to the W Hemisphere with Mexico taking 11.7 and the rest at 14.7, most likely a record.  41.8 are still needed per week based on GIPSA numbers.  Brazil corn harvest is 70% complete and 16 points ahead of last year.  For Mar 31st, the Trade’s acreage estimate is 89.998 with a range of 89.0-92.0 and Stocks average is 7.798 in a range of 7.7 – 8.1 and vs 7.75 last year.   Funds have bought in their sizeable short and are now LONG some 16,000 contracts (compared to a 27,000 contracts short just a week ago). <–Hmmmmm…..

 

BEANS     

DOWN 2

 The dollar is weaker and just minor shipping delays in S America.  There was a Sales Announcement of 214 K MT sold for 15/16 delivery and 90 K for shipment in 16/17.  Monday’s Export Inspections were 20.9 vs expectations of 17-28 and 3  short of this time last year.  China cancelled 9.5 million.  Brazil harvest is up 3.6 points to 63.1% complete which is 5 behind last year and trailing the five year avg by 3.  AgRural puts Brazil  harvest at 67% complete, up 6 and 2 points behind last year.  For Thur’s report, bean acres are expected to be 83.07 in a 81.5-84.1 range. That is up from 82.5 from the Outlook Forum.  Stocks are thought to be 230 mbu GREATER than last year at 1.557 bill bu.

 

WHEAT          

UP 8

Cold weather concerns in Russia and in the US.  Export Inspections were 12.0,  just above the bottom end of the trade’s 11-17 mbu expectations.  Japan was responsible for taking 3.1 of the total. Planalytics senses the US crop to average 46.8 bpa, up from 42.5 last year.  The Outlook Forum was using a 45.9 bpa yield.  France’s crop was again rated 92% good to very good, which is 2 points better than last year.  Thursday’s report has the Trade’s Wheat Acreage at 51.665 in a range of  50.5 – 54.6, up from 51.0, but down 54.6 last year.  Their March 1  Stocks average guess is 1.354 bill bu in a range of 1.325 – 1.415 and vs 11.4 last year.

 

 

 

 

 

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