COMMENTARY 3/27/17

Unusually heavy rain is now forecast for the S two thirds of the US for the next week to ten days as several systems work their way through.  This should increase the chance for moist accum for the Plains wheat and also add some much needed moist in the drier than normal corn belt.  In SA, W Argentina’s forecast is getting wetter while Brazil’s double crop corn is expecting some showers and some drying, especially to the the S.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 10.4′ and forecast 12.6by 3/31. 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Too wet for fieldwork here, but we were rather dry, right?  In SA, some flooding is possible in W Argentina and Brazil’s summer harvest is thought to be a point ahead of last year at 56% done.  Great Export Inspections this am at 61.3 mill bu vs expectations of 47 -59 and 42 needed per week from here on out.    Bloomberg’s US acreage est is 90.9 mill acres.

BEANS     

DOWN 4

Big US Carry Out and we’re about to plant a huge batch of acres.  Bloomberg’s acreage est is big at 88.3 mill acres.  This am’s Export Inspections were towards the low range at 18.4 mill bu vs expectations of 18 -28 mill and 14 needed per week.  Carry Out is est to be 1.676 BILL bu.  China lifted the ban on receiving Brazil meal imports over the weekend and was a significant buyer of Brazil’s beans last week.  In SA, Brazil harvest is five points ahead of last year at 67% complete.

WHEAT

DOWN 4

Rain chances for the parched Plains is looking even BETTER this week.  Some areas could receive 2 – 3 ” in the next 10 days.  They could REALLY use the moisture.  W KS has some areas that are the driest they’ve seen in some 20 years!  Export Inspections were mid range at 19.9 vs expectations of 17 -24 mill bu and vs 23.8 last week.  Some 24.4 mill are still needed per week from here on out. Friday is the big planting intentions report that everyone is waiting for!