COMMENTARY 3/26/18

After low water, how about another FLOOD watch?!  That will help recharge dry sub soils!  River conditions continue to be a challenge both here AND down at the Gulf.

CORN

DOWN 3

Nothing real supportive as we seem to be awaiting Thurs’s report and headed into  a three day weekend.  Planting progress in the S is ahead of normal….. but heavy rains coming in this week will threaten.  Planting has AR at 18% vs 16% last year, LA 63% vs 74% and 55% last week, MS 28% vs 26%, and TX 43%, same as last year.  Export Inspections were below thoughts at 45.4 vs expectations of 49 -59 mill with 57.5 needed.  Old crop Milo Inspections were hog-like at 10 vs 4.3.  It is also worth noting that milo is NOT on China’s list of items to retaliate with tariff (yes another consumable item).  On Thurs, planted acres are thought to be around 89.5 and Corn Stocks near 8.711 in a 8.5 – 8.9 range and comparing to last year’s 90.2.  With the passage of the omnibus spending bill, the 199A “Grain Glitch” was approved by Senate and signed by Pres Trump on Fri.  Producers can retroactively sell grain to private companies without a 20% reward to cooperatives.  Thanks for your support and positive attitudes as our officials sorted through their discourse!  

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 44% TW (33% LW), Bearish 17% (22% LW), Neutral 39% (44% LW)

 

BEANS              

DOWN 3

Initially Argentine crop concerns dominated with a nice am rally.  Showers over the weekend were mainly to the NE and more of the crop is getting too mature to do much good.  There was another sale announced of 132 KMT to ubknown and 120 MT of bean meal to Spain.  Export Inspections this am were 21.5 vs expectations of 17 -24 and 24.5 needed per week.  Thurs?  Acreage is expected to be right around at 90.9 in an 89.9-92.1 range. Bean stocks should be 2.030 in a 1.81 – 2.11 range and compares to last year’s 1.739.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 18% TW (10% LW); Bearish, 35% (53%)); Neutral, 47% (37%)

 

Wheat

DOWN 6

The Plains got a weekend drink with more expected.  Inspections this am were on the light side at 10.2 vs expectations of  9-18 and 21 needed per week. Acres on Thurs are seen to be 46.5 in a 46 -47 range and compares to 46 last year.  Stocks should be 1.493-ish in a 1.45 – 1.64 range and 1.659 last year.

 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 17% TW (16% LW), Bearish 35% (26% LW), Neutral 47% (58% LW)