COMMENTARY 3/24/17

Central Brazil will be showery for the next ten days, slowing fieldwork. Argentina is now forecast for 80% coverage of .02 -1.3″.  The US Midwest’s 6-10 day remains unchanged with the 11-15 day forecast drier for the West Central regions.  The dry areas from E KS to  E NE and to W IL should get some beneficial rain through the weekend and into next week.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 10.2′ and forecast 12.0by 3/28. 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Drug lower by the beans.  The USDA’s Stocks and Prosp Planting report  will be out NEXT Fri at 11am.  (and not a minute before).  These are collected via surveys from only the honest of producers.  Yc is expected to be around 90 mill in a 89.0-92.5 range and compared to 94.0 mill LAST year. Carry-Out Stocks are est to be 8.543 BILL bu in a range of 8.280-8.817.  Planting progress in the S is expected to have made good strides this week and should be avg or possibly higher.  That report will be out Mon afternoon.  With such a big board drop this week, next Fri could be volatile if someone gets a surprise.  What are YOU going to plant?

BEANS     

DOWN 15

What a sour note to end the week on!  May fut broke down through resistance today with the lowest close in …..five months.  We’ve been wondering why folks were not sellers of + $10.00 beans.  It has been offered that folks just don’t need the money.  It may be that same reason that cash rent and cash land values continue to soar?  Funds were sellers, peeling out of some 10k  contracts as well as meal and oil.  Estimates for larger SA crop coupled with big US Stocks and the perception of a huge number of acres to be planted continues to take its toll. The BA Exchange increased their est of Argentine Prod another 1.7 MMT, a 3% increase and Agro-consult raised Brazil’s est by 2.8% to 111 MMT. Bloomberg’s US acreage survey for our bean acres for is 88.3 million in a 86.4-90.2 range. If true, that’ll  be 5 million MORE acres than last year.   Carryout is thought to be in the neighborhood of  1.676 BILL bu, up from 1.531 BILL last year.

 

WHEAT

UP 4

Down 11 for the week. Eyes are still on rain potential for the HRW through next week.  We should see more demand for our US wheat as it is cheaper currently than a lot of other origins in the world. The Carry out stocks est for next Friday is 1.627 BILL bu in a 1.498-1.721 range. The total ALL wheat acre est (down significantly) is 46.1 in a44.2-48.6 million acre range and compares to 50.2 last year.