COMMENTARY 3/24/16

 

 Most of yesterday’s rain/snow event in the Plains landed N of the dry HRW areas.  So the neediest areas of Central Kansas and S are still dry. Some rain/snow is forecast for the drier areas over the holiday weekend with .20” to .40” likely yet variable. The 12-15 day forecast has the possibility of rain for the Delta, up through the Corn Belt every few days, through the first week of April. when a cooler pattern begins in earnest.  In s America, showers should be supportive to Brazil’s winter into the weekend.  After that, a dry spell is on tap.

St Louis river level ~STEADY @  ~ at 15.9′ and forecast 16.6′ by 3/29.

 CORN

UP 1

Corn was weaker early on a stronger dollar.  Nearby weather forecasts aren’t terribly supportive for a super-quick start to planting through the weekend and into April.  Export sales were below expectations, but not terrible either and a sizable sale to Taiwan was announced.  The weekly numbers were 31.6 mill vs expectations 35 – 43 mill bu.  Significant buyers were Japan, Columbia, and Saudi Arabia.  At least 18 mill per week are still needed to achieve the USDA’s 1.65 billion. Argentina’s crop is beginning to swell larger.  Their Ag Minister increased their Production est from 33.8 to 37.0 and vs the USDA at 27.0   Here are some current acreage forecast estimates from Rabo Bank 89.4-89.9, Global Analytics 89.4, Soc Gen 89.0, Informa 89.5, Allendale 90.4, and USDA 90.0.

 

BEANS     

UP 5

Great Export Meal Sales, a marketing year high and S America is making harvest progress. Funds back in after their day off?  Export Sales were at the low end of the range at 15.1 vs expectations of 15 – 22 mill bu and 3.9 needed per week.  Mexico was the biggest buyer.  The big boost was Meal Sales at 469 vs expectations of 50 – 200 with 75 per week needed.  The Phiplipines were responsible almost half of that total.  Bean Oil too was big at 24.4 vs expectations of 7 – 20k.  Argentina’s Ministry believes their crop is shrinking just a bit from 61.4 to 60.9 and the USDA’s est smaller yet at 58.5.  One Private expects China’s bean imports to stay strong at 20MMT, 4 MMT higher than last year’s 16.0 MMT for Mar/May.

 

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

The weekend’s weather looks a little damper for the dry HRW areas of the Plains.  Export Sales were actually above expectations at 13.6 vs thoughts of 6-13 and 7.9 per week needed.

 

 

 

 

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