COMMENTARY 3/23/17

Central Brazil will be showery for the next ten days, slowing fieldwork. Argentina is now forecast for 80% coverage of .02 -1.3″.  The US Midwest’s 6-10 day remains unchanged with the 11-15 day forecast drier for the West Central regions.  The dry areas from E KS to  E NE and to W IL should get some beneficial rain. The hard red winter wheat is expecting rain Thurs/Fri with 75% coverage of 0.30-1.0” with localized accums up to 1.5” for NE and NE CO  0.10-0.70”.

St Louis river level DROPPING~ at 11.0′ and forecast 10.2by 3/29. 

CORN

DOWN 2

Looks like we ignored the TREMENDOUS exports this am.  Too much focus on SA weather and the giant crop they have brewing.  Thursday’s Export Sales were GREAT at 53 mill bu vs expectations of 35-47 with only 18.2/week needed.  Big buyer’s were S Korea 23 mill, Japan 12 mill and Mexico 6 mill bu.  Milo sales too were big at 8.5 mill bu with 3.4 per week needed.  The Brazil meat scandal – normal daily volume is ->$63 million…but today was ONLY $74k.  WOW!!  Brazil also makes up as much as 40% of the world’s poultry.  If not remedied fast, it is est that their meat program may take 3-5 yrs to recover.  Buenos Aires Exchange has their harvest pegged at 8% complete, leaving total crop production unchanged at 37 MMT.

 BEANS     

DOWN 9

GREAT bean sales and positive Chinese bean import demand BUT this market was focused on SW weather and it isn’t too shabby.  Like corn, Export Sales were BEYOND expectations at27.1 mill bu vs expectations of 13 -20 mill bu.  China took an extra7 mill bu.  Meal sales, however were a tad lacking at 134.3 vs expectations of 150-350.  Vietnam has stopped the import of cattle, poultry and other meat products from Brazil.  Slim Jims made from snake may get a little hard to come by for a while.

WHEAT

DOWN 1

Rain outlook is promising for the SRW and HRW areas. Export Sales were decent at 15.4 mill bu vs expectations of 9-17 with 9.3 needed.