COMMENTARY 3/23/16

Heavy rain and snow affects NE and the N Corn Belt through tomorrow. Once this stormy patch is through with the Midwest other than a few showers,  a cold snap sweeps in for April 1 with frost and freezes potential in the HRW wheat.  Time will tell whether Sun and the next seven Sun’s following will be wet ones.  In SA, a temporary dry period begins next week for Brazil, which is normal for April.  little to no precipitation will characterize the driest parts of HRW wheat in/near the southern Plains through Thursday.

St Louis river level ~STEADY @  ~ at 16.2′ and forecast 16.0′ by 3/28.

 CORN

DOWN 2

A weaker board and higher freight took a slight toll on basis nearby too.  High water at the Gulf is slowing turn times for barges. The dollar was stronger, planting skepticism that the durability of export demand may wane. Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to show 35 – 43 mill bu with at least 19.5 needed per week. Some rain is forecast for Brazil which should be beneficial to the recently planted safrinha crop, before turning dry in April.  Over the last month, Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazil’s two biggest double crop corn states, though they were planted late, ARE still expected to develop normally.  The next Crop Production Report will be out April 12.  The Delta is way behind on planting, but TX was 29% complete compared to 13% in 15′ and the 5-year average of 31%.  Milo planting there is 22% complete, ahead of last year’s 6%.

BEANS     

DOWN 5

No Fund buying today!  The dollar was stronger and strong producer movement from the last ten days finally caught up with the market.  A larger Argentina crop may be at hand.  Oil World has increased their est by 1.5 to 59.5 and the USDA’s est 58.5. Brazil’s crop is steady at 100.0, the same as the USDA’s est.  The majority of Argentina’s beans are rated G/VG with exception to the NE which could use some rain.  Thursday’s Export Sales are thought to be 15 – 22 mill bu with just 3.9 needed.

  WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

A wetter forecast for the dry S Plains HRW areas and a non threatening Black Sea forecast. Argentina’s wheat export program is gaining momentum with 49 mill bu scheduled for export.  That’s up from 41 last week and compares to a measly 6 this time last year, and 12 for a two year avg. The Ukraine’s upcoming crop could fall to just 18.9 MMT due to fewer acres sown last fall.  That compares to the USDA’s 15/16 est of 27.2.  A European Commission too is expecting Ukraine yields to 3.61 MT/ha.

 

 

 

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