COMMENTARY 3/22/18

April across the Central US looks likely for heavy rain for the S Corn Belt as well as the Delta towards the end of next week.  Flooding could be an issue since planting is underway. In SA, last weekend’s rain was disappointing for Argentina.  This weekend storms are expected mainly in the N.  Brazil’s double-crop corn should receives normal to above normal rain into early April.

CORN

UP 1

Quiet.  Let the acreage debates begin!  Informa reduced their acreage to 88.9 mill.  Most others are at 90.  Freight is still high nearby on the OH and MS was up 25% nearby through May with recent rally in commodities.  Export Sales this am were delayed until tomorrow (due to snowstorm closing govn’t offices) but expected to be 55 -83 mill with 20.3 needed per week.  Some think due to the Argentine shortfall that China will likely need to buy at least 3 MMT of beans – maybe from the US.  It’s a good thing we don’t eat their steel and aluminum.  Rabobank has reduced their Argentine Prod est from 46 down to 40 MMT and has Brazil est at 114 MMT.

 

 BEANS              

UNCHANGED

Very quiet here too despite lots of tariff anxiety.  China may have bought 8-10 cargos for A/M….likely from Brazil due to tariff potential.  Other countries may need US beans if China gobbles up all of Brazil’s.  They have a good crop, unlike Argentina. The Grain Exchange lowered their crop size to 39.5 MMT vs 42.0 MMT last week.  In the US, Informa’s bean acreage is up slightly to 91.5 mill acres compares to Usda at 90.0 and last year at 90.1 mill acres.  Tomorrow’s (late) Export Sales are expected to be 26 -51 mill with only 10.2 needed per week.

 

Wheat

UP 2

Firm but KC was up stronger on drought concerns. Weather models are reducing rain chances, helping drive the HRW higher but the Central and S Plains are forecast to get .5  to 1.5” next week.  Some 50% of our HRW production is in drought with 10% – 12% in severe drought while the majority of SRW is wetter than normal for the last 30/60/90 day periods.  Informa released their all wheat figure of 46.1 mill acres, up 100k.