COMMENTARY 3/2/18

High water seems crested and stabilized for the time being.  Will need a few more days to help high levels on the IL and OH to recede some before we get all terminals back to loading.  In SA, Argentina stays hot/dry next week.  A strong system is forecast to come through 10 days out, but the overall LACK of humidity will prob result in only up to 0.75” (when 3.5 ” is normal for this time period). So far they are at a 39 yr record for dryness in the main bean areas!

CORN

DOWN 1

It would appear that trade concern issues outweigh the potentially sub 34 MMT Argentine crop est.  The BA Grain still maintains a 37 MMT crop estimate but their conditions are deteriorating  from 44% Good/Fair last week to  only 24% this week!  Informa raised their est for Brazil by 1 MMT to 89.0 while lowering Argentina’s 3.5 to 33.5.  We’ll see what develops over the course of the weekend.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 67% TW (65% 2 week avg),  Bearish 11% (12% LW), and Neutral 22% (24% LW)

 

BEANS

UP 3

Nervous time with an 19 cent trade has market concerned with worry over forecast models.  Our big bean carry out doesn’t feel as big as it once did with the SA drought escalating and more thought of other countries needing to look to the US for beans.  Talk of increasing steel and aluminum tariffs comes with fear of retaliatory tariffs that could be placed on US grain products by importers. So far, China has NOT reacted negatively to these proposed US tariffs.  China (128KMT) and unknown (121KMT) did buy more US beans this am.  In SA, The BA Exchange took the Argentine Prod est down another 3 MMT to 44.0.  Informa took Arg down 7 MMT to 44.0 while taking Brazil, up 1.5 to 114.0.  The EU continues to prefer imported beanmeal vs buying beans and crushing themselves. That is good for countries with lots of crush plants.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 56% TW (53% 2 week avg), Bearish 22% (24% LW), Neutral 22% (24% LW)

 

WHEAT

DOWN 16

Fund selling anyone?  There are many sources of alternative wheat supplies if trade issues pop up.  Still focused on flooding in the E and drought in the W.  The drought map still does NOT showing much improvement as hoped for after KS/OK and TX did receive some spotty rains.  Some 79% of KS and 98% of OK is now in some drought stage.  Two weeks ago 72% of KS and 100% of Oklahoma wheat was categorized as droughty.  Wheat conditions in France have worsened this week.  Some 83% is rated Good/Very Good, down slightly from 85% last week and compares to 93% G/VG last year.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 61% TW (56% 2 week avg), Bearish 11% (19% LW), Neutral 28% (25% LW)