COMMENTARY 3/16/16

In SA, additional rain is expected across N Brazil for the next few days. Mato Grossa is still expecting 1.0″ – 2.0″, but most widespread coverage is expected to be .5 “.  In areas where amounts are heavier, could result in additional delays in bean harvest.  S Brazil, should continue to aid early bean harvest.  Dry weather should also support corn harvest progress in Argentina with limited showers of .5 – 1.0”.

 Delta area flooding should recede over the coming week. The Midwest should see normal precip the next two weeks. Rain chances return 3/23 – 3/25 in the SE and planting could get interrupted again. The High Plains should stay too dry for the next two weeks and early am lows this weekend Sunday could be cold enough for frost and even a light freeze for the HRW production areas. Lows will be coldest Sat with some areas of NE CO reaching into the 20’s.

St Louis river level ~RISING @  ~ at 13.3′ and forecast 15.8′ by 3/21.

 CORN

UNCHANGED   

Weaker to start and Southern corn planting should resume as soon as excess water recedes. This week’s ethanol production was surprisingly robust with output at 999 K bpd, up 21 K from last week.   Stocks fell 454 K to 22.85 million, dropping our yr/yr surplus to 2.0 mill bu.  Allendale was out today with their forecast of Southern yc acres at 90.4 million acres.  US Export Sales are expected to run between 28 – 43 mill bu for the week with at least 20.6 mill needed per week from here on out.  US corn IS competitively priced with that of Brazil and Argentina.  Texas is 20% planted, 2 points behind their 5 yr average and 15% planted on milo, which is equiv to the 5 yr avg.  The Delta is still wet and there is talk of potentially switching yc acres to beans or cotton.

 

BEANS     

UP 2     

Some fear of export competition has faded at least temporarily.  The USDA said this morning 100 K MT of 15/16 beans were sold to Unknown.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 15 – 26 mill with only 4.6 per week needed.    Allendale’s US planting est is 82.54 mill acres.  ABIOVE raised its Brazil crop est from 98.5 MMT last month to 99.7 and raised both 2015 exports up 800 K to 55.3 and 2016 exports 1 .2 MMT higher at 54.5 million.  Declining EU crush margins may encourage more meal imports and less raw beans.  According to Oil World, a record we could see a 5% increase in Russia/Ukraine sunflower planting in 2016.

Brazil’s harvest is 52% complete vs 50% last year with slow Producer sales and harvest half over, selling could pop up any on board (or currency) change.  Wet weather in S Brazil is still causing vessel loading delays at Brazil’s big ports.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 6

There is even less fresh news than there was yest.  Thursday’s Export Sales Report is expected to show 9 – 17 mill bu with 9.14 needed per week.  The Iran new crop wheat is est at 12 MMT according to the Agricultural Ministry, two less than the USDA’s estimate for the year.  Egypt is tendering for 60 K MT of April 15-24 shipment. Offers were seen from France, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia.  Romania’s was the least expensive. The Eqyptian Ag Attache’ lowered their wheat import est to 10.6 MMT, 900 K below the recent WASDE figure.  Egypt is the largest consumer of world wheat. The KS crop condition is steady at 56% G/E,  Oklahoma improved from 66% to 67% G/E, and TX gained 4 points to 46% G/E.  Kansas winter wheat is 6% jointed, 4 points ahead of the 5 yr avg.