COMMENTARY 3/13/18

River conditions continue to improve.  The OH River and Mid Miss are opening up, flushing out corn and the Upper Miss is not far away from opening!

In SA, the dry issues of Arg intensify through Friday for most corn and soybeans in Argentina, then have a good chance for a some strong system to come through Sat/Sun. In Brazil, rains are expected for the extreme N and S over the next 10 days. for the goold ol US, the weekend is expected to be rather stormy especially for the Delta region. – but not SO for the drought-stricken SW Plains.

CORN                            

UP 1

Firm due to Argentina crop concerns and fears that not all the safrinha acres will get planted.  Funds were heavy buyers again with the weaker US dollar. There was also another sale announced of 210 K MT to S Korea this am. Cordonnier reduced another 1 MMT off of his Argentine Prod est leaving it now at a paltry 34 mill.  It compares to the USDA’s 36 mill and the BA Exchange’s  34.0.  Cordonnier is leaving Brazil unchanged at 86 mill.  Note: when nearby corn was recently just $3.70 the Funds were significantly short.  Now that nearby corn has SWOLLEN to $4.00 (due to Fund buying) the Funds are now LONG 190k contracts (or 950 mill bu)  ~This suggests nicely that $4.00 corn should NOT continue to be held.

 

 BEANS              

UP 8

The Argentine crop continues to shrink, though some moisture is in the forecast for the weekend.  So far they are the driest in 39 yrs and the potential to for a 25% reduction in yields!  Cordonnier lowered his Argentine Prod est 2 MMT to 43 mill and leaves Brazil unchanged at 114.  The trade is rightfully skeptical over last week’s USDA cut in US exports.  There are too many unknowns about the size of the Arg and Brazil crops.  Funds now are LONG 160k ysb contracts (or 800 mill bu) ….and have created such a position since bean futures shot up recently (it was the SAME time Funds came out of their big short).  What should this tend to suggest?

 

WHEAT

DOWN 4

Mixed as drought issues continue in the Plains.  Crop ratings continue to struggle with OK at only 7% G/E, up 1 from last week and the P/VP 72%, TX up 3 to 13%, and KS down 1 to 12% G/E.  In the event you haven’t gotten yourself “sold up” on $5 + new crop, and you can’t tare your wondering mind away from the Funds and what their current position may suggest, they are short some 28k contracts (or 140 mill bu) and that has taken place recently since new crop wheat was in the $5.30 cash range.