COMMENTARY 2/28/18

Several locks taken out of service due to high water on the OH and IL Rivers and more terminals can’t load out.

CORN

UP 3

The Argentine crop ideas get worse and could now be under 35 MMT.   In fact, as we look into mid Mar, the drought should get worse for the key corn and bean areas due to lack of humidity.  Some 80% of corn and 90% of bean production is expected to get  less than 25% of normal accum in the next several weeks.  Looking at historic poor yielding years, suggests the worst case with no impact on acres might be a 33.8-34.0 MMT crop (that’s 5 below the USDA est).  In the US, Eth Prod is at 1.044 mbpd, falling short of the 1.061 est, and down 24 K from last week.  That compares to 1.034 last yr. Stocks were higher than expected at 22.979 vs an avg guess of 22.859 and vs 22.753 last week and 23.091 last year.  There’s still no agreement from the White House Senate meeting on biofuels yesterday. -And on the 199A debockle, we understand that the verbage to correct is in place, with many feeling good about the text.  Next vote is coming up on Mar 23.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 39 -55 mill bu while nearby market movement is moving corn locally, causing recent basis increases to decrease due to higher freight.

BEANS

UP 6

The Argentine crop could be down to 45 MMT.  Stocks levels along with farmer lack of selling are key factors. There was another 250KMT sale announced today to unknown. The Argentine drought could cost producers there some$2.2 billion.  Thurs’s Export Sales are expected to be 15 – 26 mill bu.

 

 

WHEAT

UP 18

Finally some support to account for the drought in the Plains.  Forecasts uncertain.  Export Sales are expected to be 7 – 18 mill bu tomorrow.