COMMENTARY 2/26/18

More rain over the weekend creating record high levels on the Ohio!

CORN

UP 2

More chatter has the Argentine corn crop in the 32 -34 MMT range.  Weather forecasts remain warm and dry while a large portion of Brazil is getting the safriha crop planted. Funds bought some 10,000 contracts today!  Export Inspections were hearty at  51.4 vs 31-43 expected and 49.8 per week needed.  Plus, the USDA announced a new 125 KMT sale this am!

 

BEANS

DOWN 2

Shrinking Argentine production had us up early but faded as forecast models put some shower possibilities in.  Dryness there is causing the worst drought since 1980.  A large portion of the crops there usually get 3″ of rain in the next two week time period. Agroconsult has the Brazil crop at a record 117.5 million tons, up from 114 mill from last month, and ABOVE last year’s record 114.6 mill. The Argentina crop is est at 49 mill tons. Most trade guesses are now under 50 mill tons with worst case scenario at 41!  Ag Rural has Brazil at 25% harvested, two below the 5 yr and compares to 36% last year.  The State of Mato Grosso is at 58%, close to its 3 yr average.  Double crop corn planting is going in great behind the beans.  Back States-side, there was a new sale of 132 K MT to China announced this am.  Export Inspections were mid-range at 28.0 vs expectations of 22-33 and barely above the 26.4 mill still needed per week. Fun Fact: China accounts for nearly 61% of all US exports.  

 

WHEAT

UP 7

Ratings by the State are expected to be out late this afternoon showing additional deterioration of HRW.  Some areas have received some moist recently, but 30% of the US HRW area is still dry.  Export Inspections were on the light side at 10.3 vs expectations of 12-19 mill and way below the 21 mill per week still needed.