Commentary 2/26/14

Commentary 2/26/14



River levels abound!  St Louis river level now at +12 ft and forecast to drop to 10.6 by 3/2.  That is still 13 feet higher than it has been the last three weeks!  Cordonnier leaves his Brazil crop at 68.5 and leaves Argentina at 22.5.  Low stocks of south African corn are allowing imports to come in from the Black Sea region.  Several large grain entities are now banning delivery of Syngenta Ag Genetically Modidfied corn until China approves the trait.  Commodity Weather Group says we are likely to have a cool, ample moisture spring which MAY lead to a slow start planting.  Below avg temps for the US corn belt for the next 10-14 days.



UP 8

Firm to start off, then weakened somewhat as Brazil loading accelerate and ample global supplies weigh on new crop despite some reduction in SA production estimates.    Yesterday, Cordonnier lowered Brazils bean est 1/2mmt to 88.5 and expects fewer 2nd crop plantings.   South American harvest still coming along relatively slow compared to expectations. 

 Brazil had 1/2″ of rain in southern RGDS but otherwise was relatively dry.  Argentina had good coverage yesterday of 1/2″ to 2″” in .  Forecast calls for cool temps with below avg rainfall across Argentina.

Yesterday’s flash bean sale to unknown has more analysts thinking that US crop supplies are tight and that China cancelling 1 mmt may not be enough to ration. 




Global supplies of wheat are plentiful.  Spring wheat continues to be volatile.  FAS expects Saudi Arabia wheat to output to fall17%.  Cepa notes that low returns to corn in Brazil’s south could cause more acres to switch to wheat.  Heightened winterkill concerns in early April, given below normal temp outlook and possible planting and emergence delays to spring wheat crop.