COMMENTARY 2/24/17

St Louis river level RISING~ at 9.9′ and forecast 16.8by 3/8.  

CORN

DOWN 2

Yesterday’s Ag Forum has acres est at 90.0 mil acres, below the average trade guess of 90.8 mil but within the range of 89.0-92.5 and last year at 94.0.  The average farm price for 17/18 at $3.50 and was $3.40 last year.  Export Sales (out tomorrow due to Pres Day) should be in the neighborhood of 31 – 43 mill bu with 12-20 needed.  Export Sales were below expectations at 29.3 vs expectations of 31 – 43 mill bu.  Mato Grosso harvest is nearing 80% complete vs 72% last year.

 BEANS     

UP 2

Down 19 cents for the week. Data from the Ag Outlook Forum showed acres up 4.6 million from last year. Yields of 48.0 vs 52.1 last year and exports were increased 75 mill bu to 2.125Bill bu.  C/O is thought to remain unchanged at 420 mill bu. Today’s Export Sales were below expectations at 15.2 vs expectations of 20 – 31 mill bu.  We’re seeing more basis weakness in terminal bids due to higher barge freight which was 5-15% higher.  Rains in Mato Grosso are testing N logistics, but yields continue to come in above the last USDA est of 104 MMT and the harvest conditions are nearing 80% vs 72% this time last year.

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Sluggish.  A lack of fresh fundamental news is overpowering any weather issues. Export Sales were mid range at 16.6 vs expectations of 13 -20 mill bu. New crop sales were well above expectations with Mexico taking 3.6 mill next year.  Argentina’s minister is expecting a crop exceeding 18 MMT which would be 3+ MMT more than the last USDA est.