COMMENTARY 2/24/16

Cool fronts should dissipate for S Brazil and Paraguay over the next 7-10 days but with it comes heavy rain with accums of 2.5″ to 5.0″ possible and 6.0″ + in Parana.  One weather model shows some areas there could get up to 12.0″.  Some storms are still expected in Argentina, but escape the heavy accum in the at least the S half of the State.

St Louis river level ~RISING ~ at 14.2′ and forecast to be 15.0′ by  2/29.

 CORN

DOWN 2

Weaker on ideas of more corn acres.  On a positive note, Colombia did buy more US corn.  Our export prospects are still a mixed bag with a record amount unshipped bu’s booked to Mexico.   There may still be some hope for US exports as S Africa may need to import 8-9 MMT this year.  Rabobank lowered their second quarter price estimate to $3.90.   One private estimates that the Ukraine could see an 8-10% increase in corn planting. US corn seedings, out later this week are expected to be 89.6 million acre. Bloomberg has the 16/17 US corn planted area estimated at 89.7 million acres in a 88.3-92.5 range and vs 88.0 last year.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to range between 28 – 47 mill bu with 22.8 needed per week.  In SA, Safras estimates some 51% of the crop is in the ground, 13 points ahead of a year ago and 1st crop corn harvest is 23% complete, 2 points ahead of last year.

BEANS     

DOWN 2

Better yield reports from Brazil pressured today as harvest gets into some later planted beans.  Unshipped US sales to China and Unknown are at 153 mill bu, vs 148 LY and 204 for the two year avg. This brings to light our sluggish nearby export outlook.  Brazil bean export activity should push the Feb shipment total beyond 3 MMT, up from 2.85 last year, but well below the 4.4 million total in 14′.  We are STILL waiting on SA to have trouble loading their bean vessels.  Brazil’s Port of Parangua’s vessel waits are at 50-60 days, vs only 20 this time last year.  Bloomberg’s estimates on the 2016 US bean acres at 83.3 in a range of 82.0-85.0), up from 82.7 last year.  US bean seedings are expected to be 83.3 million acres.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to show 11 – 26 mill bu.

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 5

Lack of demand.  There is now speculation that the US carry-out dribble OVER the 1 bbu mark.   The Black Sea Region’s snow cover is almost gone.  Russia’s Grain Union says  more corn acres are likely and could be up 7+% as their wheat export tax is encourages producers to switch from wheat to corn.  Rabobank cuts their first quarter wheat price outlook by 12 cents to an average of $4.68/bu on weak export prospects and large US and EU stocks.