COMMENTARY 2/23/18

High river levels continue to cause issues. In Peoria, the river is expected to crest on Sunday, 3.7’ below the all-time record. Two locks on the Upper IL River are closed. More rain is in the forecast!  As much as another 4” is still expected for the OH valley region!  Barge freight so far has been surprisingly steady.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Choppy and getting support from Argentina dryness and limited by big supply, both domestic and in the world.  Today’s Export Sales were firm at 61.2 mill vs expectations of 39 – 59 mill bu.  The USDA’s Outlook for 18/19 has planted acreage at 90.0 mill, 82.7 harvested, and a yield of 174.0 bpa.  Domestic use is est at 12.620 bill bu,exports at 1.900, and a carry-out of 2.272…..with an avg price of $3.40. The fund position is now  +19k long vs -10k last week.

 

BEANS

UP 4

The story is still dry Argentina weather.  BAGE has reduced their crop est to 47 MMT and Agroconsult raised its Brazil  est from 114.1 to 117.5 MMT. Ag Rural has est that Brazil’s harvest progress is currently at 25% , close to their 5 year avg of 27%, but below last year’s 36%. The USDA Ag Outlook released their estimated crop size at 48.5 bpa or 4.320 Bbu vs 49.1 and 4.392 last year.  Export Sales were negative due to cancellations lending a net of -4 mill vs expectations of positive 22 – 33 mill bu. China canceled 13.3 and Unknown 4.5 mill.  Meal sales were  below the low end of expectations at 132KMT. Two new sales were announced this morning with 40kmt old and 66kmt new crop.  The USDA Outlook for 18/19 bean acres est  at 90 million, 89.1 harvested, and a 48.5 bu yield.  Domestic use is est at 2.115 bill bu,  exports at 2.300, and a 0.460 mill carry-out.  The avg price is est at $9.25.  The est crop insurance price avg for Nov futures is $10.12.

 

WHEAT

UP 1

Mixed. Export sales of 12.1 mill bu were in the range of expectations of the 9 -18. Some 10.8 mill bu are still needed each week. Philippines were the big buyers at 5.5 mill with Japan at 2.5 and Venezuela at 2.2.