COMMENTARY 2/23/17

In SA, just scattered showers for Argentina (drying out), Brazil and Paraguay through next week.  In US,  a blizzard is expected to whack N NE through Wisconsin today and into tomorrow. Sun forward, several systems move creating rain and snow from the Delta to E Corn Belt including SRW wheat areas and mainly OUTSIDE the HRW belt. They aren’t expected to receive much rain at least until mid Mar. Temps too should be cooler to below normal for the next two weeks.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 9.6′ and forecast 18.4by 3/5.  

CORN

DOWN 5

Spillover pressure and market fades on slightly lower than expected planting est from the Ag Outlook Forum as Brazil’s production numbers continue to get bigger. Acres are est at 90.0 mil acres, below the average trade guess of 90.8 mil but within the range of 89.0-92.5 and last year at 94.0.  The average farm price for 17/18 at $3.50 and was $3.40 last year.  Export Sales (out tomorrow due to Pres Day) should be in the neighborhood of 31 – 43 mill bu with 12-20 needed.

 BEANS     

DOWN 11

The fifth day lower as the longs were being liquidated and the Mar fut dropped below the 200 day moving average of 10.18.   Record US acreage est from the Ag Outlook Forum. Plantings est at 88.0 mil acres, which was slightly below the avg guess of 88.3 mill but within the range of 86.5-92.5 and up 4.6 mill from last year.  The avg farm price was est at $9.60 and compares to last years $9.50 for 16/17.  Export Sales  should be 20 -31 mill bu tomorrow with just 4 – 11 needed per week.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 3

Mixed.  Today’s Ag Forum showed ALL Wheat Plantings est at 46 mill acres vs the avg guess of 46.5 and within the 41.3-52.0 range and the average farm price for 17/18 is est to be $4.30, compares to last year’s $3.85 16/17.  Thursday’s Export Sales will be out tomorrow and expected to be 13-20 mill bu with 0- 2 needed per week.  Funky weather coming up after this warm mass of air has brought wheat out of dormancy.  Certainly don’t need any staggering temp drops!