COMMENTARY 2/21/17

Decent 3 day weekend for SA harvest!  Dry and hot weather affected much of Argentina yesterday, while Mato Grosso received some unneeded accum with heavy amounts S areas from Paraguay to Rio Grande do Sul.  Hot weather is expected for the next 7 to 10 days in Argentina. Beginning this weekend a cool front moves to the N potentially bringing 1-2” of accum for Brazil and Paraguay.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 10.2′ and forecast 13.8by 3/5.  

CORN

UP 1

Slightly higher after the three day weekend and lacking much fresh news.  Today’s Export Inspections were 45. 4 mill vs expectations of 43-51. The full season corn harvest in Brazil is running behind last year at 14% with optimistic ideas on  yields. Cordonnier left his Brazil and Argentine est at 86 MMT, 36MMT but expressed concern about wet weather in Mato Grosso and Parana which could delay bean harvest and then push back safrinha planting progress.

BEANS     

DOWN 6

Nice range but and as high as 12 cents but reality set in and the market sold off.  Chinese buyers were on the sidelines and SA weather seems decent for harvest.  Export Inspections were above expectations at 39.5 mill bu.  China was responsible for taking 17.2 mill.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Under pressure with the US $ higher. Weather uncertainty continues. Unseasonably warm weather has many wondering what happens if we get a cold snap in Mar. Rain is forecast for parts of the HRW and the best chances are N of the key growing areas.  The Export Inspections were decent at 20.5 mill bu and at the high end of the trading range. This is approx double what is needed to reach the USDA est.