COMMENTARY 2/17/17

A week of BALMY weather in the US!!!!  It’s so balmy, ….it’s creepy!  The SA forecast sas several storm systems moving across Argentina over the next 10 days.  These storms are expected to produce anywhere from 2.75” to 5.50” in accum, so flooding IS a concern.  Brazil and Paraguay should be dry, except for Mato Grosso where a few pop up storms are possible.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 8.9′ and forecast 10.0by 2/20.  

CORN

DOWN 5

The USDA began this am with 194k ton sale announcement to Japan.  Barge freight continues to weaken nearby as Feb volumes are taken care of.  The PNW continues to be backlogged due to excess rain and more storms bringing an addtn’l 6″ to Calif won’t help…so that’s good for those of us who load commodities at the Gulf!  Funds were sellers of 5,000 contracts today and their overall position is still net LONG 374,000 contracts OR 1.87 BILLION bu.  Yes, BILLION.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 11

The Brzl Real was weaker today and we’re seeing some market pressure in Brazil as harvest moves forward with good yields rstill being reported. China DID buy 2 US cargoes of beans today for mid summer!  Trains in the PNW are being deferred and loaded out of the Gulf.  This three day weekend SHOULD be a good harvest weekend in Brazil. Funds sold 6,000 contracts today and are still REAL LONG.  Mato Grosso (Brazil’s largest bean state) is approx. 50% done with bean harvest.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 7

A disappointing finish to the week!  -but a decent range of being up 15 cents for the week at one point!   Much of the HRW and SRW regions will be mighty warm this weekend and into next week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts look to have normal to above normal temps.  Wheat is a good storage hedge and decent carry. If you are a wheat efficianado, consider bull spreading the N/Z or Z/H against wheat that is going to be held into NEXT winter.