COMMENTARY 2/16/17

Still no change for the SA forecast as several storm systems move across Argentina over the next 10 days.  These storms are expected to produce anywhere from 2.75” to 5.50” in accum, so flooding IS a concern.  Brazil and Paraguay should be dry, except for Mato Grosso where a few pop up storms are possible.  NEXT week will be colder with some storms for the US. 

St Louis river level RISING~ at 8.5′ and forecast 10.1by 2/20.  

CORN

DOWN 5

Decent demand, but those Funds are powerful and continue to dominate.  They sold some 6,000 contracts today.  Thursday’s Export Sales were a shade disappointing at 30.8 vs expectations of 35 -43 mill bu with 19.7 needed per week. Japan bought a hearty 28 mill bu, while unknown cancelled 15 mill.  Harvest delays to the bean crop in W Mato Grosso is being said to reduce the double crop corn acreage as much as 24-25% according to one producer (I’m SURE he is more honest than some other producers).  The end of Feb is the normal cut off date for planting the double crop.  Beans are thought to 30-45% harvested now.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 17

Fund sold 8,000 contracts as the big SA harvest weighs on the market’s mind.  That’s despite another week of good sales and the Brazil farmer is NOT selling.  Export Sales were better at 32.8 vs expectations of 18 -28 and 5.1 per week needed.  Unshipped sales to China and unknown are currently up 70% from  this time last year!  USDA is maintaining a baseline of 85.5 mill planted acres this year.  Brazil yields continue to impress despite heavy rains in in Mato Grosso.  Agroconsult currently has them est at 105.3 MMT.  Bird flu is running rampant in Taiwan so, no more trucking chickens next week to prevent spread!

WHEAT

DOWN 7

Mixed bag today.  Fund selling coupled with SPECTACULAR Export Sales of 20.9 vs expectations of 11-18 and 9.6 needed per week.  Our baseline acres have been left unchanged at 48.5 mill acres.  Snow melt in the W is garnering some concern for the HRW crop although next week SHOULD be a little cooler.