COMMENTARY 2/15/17

In SA, rain coverage and amounts are increasing across Argentina as a line of storms bring any where from 2″ – 6” across Central and the S to get up to 1-4” nearing the weekend.  That makes flooding likely for areas like Entre Rios and Santa Fe. Most of N Brazil  (except Mato Grosso) is expected to be drier for a spell.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 8.7′ and forecast 10.3by 2/22.  

CORN

UP 4

A strong performance today by funds continuing to push money into the commodities. The DOW put in yet another record high today. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 35 -43 mill bu.  Some volume of grain is being switched from the PNW to the Gulf due to flooding out W and interrupting rail service.

 

BEANS     

UP 16

Mar fut did stay above their 50 day moving average of $10.45 thanks to Fund buying.  One scrap of supportive  of fundamental news was the Jan NOPA  Crush coming in at 160.62 vs the average est of 159.1 mill bu.  Oil stocks too came in bigger than expected at 1.629 bil lbs vs the average of 1.510 and compares to last month amount at 1.434 bil lbs. The trade was leaning toward a more bullish estimate for oil which had oil firmer and meal steady to weaker. Once Crush was released,  the Funds reversed their long oil/short meal positions.  SA weather overall is non-threatening…aside from Argentina.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 18 -28 mill bu tomorrow am.

 

WHEAT

UP 5

Funds were hearty buyers of 3,500 contracts estimated.