COMMENTARY 2/14/17

In SA, rain coverage and amounts are increasing across Argentina as a line of storms bring any where from 2″ – 6” across Central and the S to get up to 1-4” nearing the weekend.  That makes flooding likely for areas like Entre Rios and Santa Fe. Most of N Brazil  (except Mato Grosso) is expected to be drier for a spell.

St Louis river level RISING~ at 8.0′ and forecast 10.7by 2/24.  

CORN

DOWN 1

Mixed with old crop weaker and new crop unchanged which ends a five day rally and after yesterday’s six month high.  After building a big long the past several sessions, funds turned and sold 4,500 contracts today. The US $ was up considerably which may have applied some pressure. The USDA adid announce a sale of 229k tons to Japan for 17/18 which did lend support. Argentina’s ag minister says they are looking at ways to export more corn to Mexico. Ethanol margins were under pressure with board crush losing  4 cents/bu.

BEANS     

DOWN 9

No Fund buying today to give us a false sense of support. Decent weather for Brazil harvest.  NOPA crush out at 11 am CST on Wednesday, and last month’s grind was 160.1 mbu. Estimates for grind is approx. 158.7 mill bu.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 3

The S HRW belt did catch some nice rains over the last couple days, but KS accums were spotty. The market should stay sensitive to how quickly the wheat comes out of dormancy following the 80+ temperatures and dry conditions in the W.  The temp spike might have been brief, but with limited growth, it won’t take much to trigger growth. There are also still some concerns of winter kill for the Black Sea region.  Some privates are est another big Russian crop which will compound the burdensome global supply. We’ve had 4 consecutive years of record global wheat production. Currently, the increase in US wheat values has priced ours OUT of the global market again.