COMMENTARY 1/6/16 **ALL TERMINALS ARE BACK OPEN!!**

 

St Louis river level ~DROPPING NICELY ~ at +30.4′ and forecast to be 27.1 by  1/10.

Widespread coverage of avg to above rainfall is forecast for key corn/bean areas in Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 2 weeks.  Rains in Northern Brail will break their dry spell but keep S Brazil and Paraguay way too wet, and Argentina moderately damp.  Something to ponder: The Nov/Dec we just had was the wettest since prior to 1895.  Some 11 of the 15 wettest years on record have occurred since 1960 and many times following those REALLY wet years were particularly poor crops. Those years were 1974, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1993, and 2012.

 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Traded both sides today, looking for some new news.  Thursday’s Export Sales is expected to range 16 -24 mill bu with 27.3 needed per week.  The Nov Census Exports were 77.5 mbu.  The Sep/Nov total of 303 is 29 mbu more than reported.  Brazil’s Dec exports DOUBLED from 3.42 MMT in 2014 to 6.3 million this year.  South American yc is currently $5 – 9 per ton cheaper than that of US corn.   Lots of nervous folks out there!  The next crop report is out 1/12!

Bloomberg Opinion:  44% of traders are bearish, 38% are neutral

BEANS     

UP 7    (Now using Mar Futures)

Also spent the majority of the day trading both sides, but closed on a high note. Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to show 15 – 26 mill bu for the week with 9.6 per week needed.  The Nov Export Census report showed  342 mbu, 14 mbu more than the AMS est and the S/O/N total was 792, 20 ahead of the AMS est.  The latter could mean a  Dec 1 stocks figure of 2.7 bbu, or 30 less than the trade average guess.  The Nov Meal Exports were 145 K ST higher than expected by Export Sales data. The Sep/Oct total was 6% lower at 2.08 MST and the USDA is expecting a 10% reduction for the year.  Domestic Meal was 2.76 MST,less than the est from the NASS crush report with O/N with a 10% gain over 2014.  The USDA was expecting a 3.3% for the year.  Brazil’s Parana crop rated “good” rose from 86% to 87% – a step in a positive direction!

Bloomberg Opinion:  OVER 60% of traders surveyed are bearish, 25% are neutral

 

WHEAT          

UP 1

Why not?!  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to range from 7 – 15 mill bu with 10.6 needed per week.

Bloomberg Opinion: 45% of traders are bullish