COMMENTARY 1/29/16

Argentina and S Brazil stayed dry overnight, N Brazil saw some light showers.  Brazil should be trending drier now, aiding bean harvest and corn planting.  S Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to have sscattered showers while Argentina remains mostly dry.

St Louis river level ~EASING ~ at +15.4′ and forecast to be 12.9′ by  2/3.

 CORN

UP 6

They over-did it yesterday.  Mar futures 3.72, breaking thru the resistance at 3.70 to highest close since 12/22.  Argentine dry weather coming at a critical time.  Export Sales were near the low end at 32.2 in the 32-39 mbu expectation with  25.5 per week needed. Mexico took 12.0, Japan at 9.7, and Saudi Arabia bought 3.0.  European sources have documented a A 1.2 MMT Russian yc shipment to China and is said to stem from China’s extension of $1.5 billion credit from WAY back in 2012.   Argentine farmers are est to be 94.8% planted, about the same as last year.  Nearby weather concerns are keeping a neutral to lower bias on their yc crop.  Due to a lack of farmer selling, Brazil’s domestic corn price has risen up 45% in some areas, which could mean more Safrinha plantings are likely despite the fact that the optimal planting window has already passed.  Funds ARE still record short!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 21%,   Bearish 41%,  and Neutral 38%

BEANS     

UP 15

The mid day forecasts were DRIER for 6-10 day and 11-15 day.  That heaved us up again to the 100-day average at $8.81 (fut).  The Brazilian Real was also strong.   Export Sales were mid range at 23.8 vs expectations of 18 – 29 mill bu with 6.3 per week needed.  China was back in buying for 11 million from the Gulf just in case Brazil has issues loading.  Brazil bean harvest is est at 3.9% complete, a point behind last year but even with the 5 year average.  The Argentina is planted and expecting a 58.0 MMT crop, down from 60.8 last week and vs the USDA at 57.0.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 7%,  Bearish 59%, and Neutral, 34%

 

WHEAT          

UP 7

Wheat ignored the fact that the dollar was up over 1100 points.  Russia is likely NOT going to remove/change its export tax. Export Sales were in the low end of expectations at 10.8 vs 9 – 15 mill bu.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish  17%,  Bearish  52%, and Neutral 31%