COMMENTARY 1/27/17

SA storm coverage is possible over Feb 1-4 as a series of systems move across Argentina, interacting with the remnants of the recent cool front.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 15.3′ and forecast 14.8by 2/1.  

CORN

DOWN 1

Lower from absence of immediate weather concerns across South America.  Mato Grosso is currently planting their second crop (safrinha) corn.  The once thought big expansion of Brazil’s safrinha  crop appears unlikely due to current est of very low domestic prices, with some dipping below the minimum level set by the gov.   Interest in Mexican trade relations are getting the market’s attention.  US corn exports to Mexico accounted for 23.5% of all of our corn exports for the 14/15 crop year and 26.9% of exports for 15/16…that’s a bigger % than in beans.

 

BEANS     

UNCHANGED

Choppy and weaker early, but closed without scabs as we monitor SA weather.   Should we be concerned over trade relations with Mexico?  Not so much.  US bean exports to Mexico accounted for 6.9% of all our bean exports in 14/15 and 6.4% of exports for 15/16.   Several rain chances next week for Argentina are possible but very debatable.

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Weaker with more Fund selling and big supplies are burdensome with only a modest reduction in 17′ est world production.  How much wheat do we send to Mex?  Rather minor….some 11.9% of all US wheat exports for 14/15 and 12.0% in 15/16.  More rain on its way to ECB and Delta next week.