COMMENTARY 1/27/16

An unstable wet pattern dominates S Brazil and Paraguay through next week.  In Argentina, hot/dry with rain staying limited in a small but very important area in the East.  N Brazil is expected to have showers this week, followed by five to seven days of hot/dry weather starting this weekend. At this point, some 15% of Argentina yc and 20% of bean production is uncommonly dry.

St Louis river level ~STEADY ~ at +15.4′ and forecast to be 13.5′ by  1/31.

 CORN

UNCHANGED

Off of its lows , strength in oil may have helped along with some SA hot/dry possibilities. The new USDA baseline acreage numbers have planted acres down 300 K to 90.2 million from Jan, but still above 2015’s March Intentions of 89.2.  One seed company suggests a modest acreage gain over last year, but, at the expense of beans.  Funds ARE record short! Thursday is Export Sales Report day – BUT due to the in-climate weather in Wash DC, Sales will be released on Fri.

BEANS     

UP 6

Argentine dryness remains a concern while rains in Brazil are keeping harvest from progressing. The new USDA baseline planted acreage estimate is up 100 K to 82.1 million, 2.5 million less than the Mar 15′.  Argentina is likely to export 50 K MT of beans in January, with crush at a RECORD large 3 MMT even though producer sales have been below expectations.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 8

Russia export restrictions are less of a concern than they were yesterday.  One Russian grain export group is requesting the government to reduce/eliminate the exports tax. Currently it is 50% of customs value less 6,500 rubles.   The group is requesting expanding the reduction to 7,500.