COMMENTARY 1/26/16

Brazil, Paraguay, and N Argentina should become unsettled the next 10 days as the cool fronts dissipate.  The drier areas like Buenos Aires should be drier than normal.  N Brazil is expected to have showers this week, followed by five to seven days of hot/dry weather starting this weekend.

St Louis river level ~STEADY ~ at +15.6′ and forecast to be 14.1′ by  1/30.

 CORN

DOWN 1

Its heating up in Argentina as pollination time approaches.  Soc Gen estimates the US yc acres unchanged at 88 million with less than a 1% decline in beans at 84.2.  Cordonnier estimates Brazil corn crop at 81.2 and leaves Argentina unchanged at 23.6.  Funds ARE record short! 

BEANS     

DOWN  4

The Shanghai Exchange was lower overnight and increasing protein demand concerns.  There’s no change in Cordonnier’s SA estimates with Brazil at 97, Argentina at 59.0, and Paraguay at 8.8. The early bean yields from Brazil continues to be disappointing, although later planted beans should yield better as harvest progresses.

WHEAT          

UP 3

Russia could institute export restraints until the new crop is available. Egypt rejected a French wheat cargo after finding Ergot, which exceeded their zero tolerance level.