COMMENTARY 1/25/16

Warm temps here in the US this week.  In SA, Normal rains were recv’d over the weekend in Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay with exception of the driest areas near Buenos Aires.  More showers are expected both this and next week, through  Feb 6th, for N Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay. N Brazil, Bahia, Goias, and Mato Grosso are expected to be drier than normal.

Food for thought:  The Nov/Dec we just had win the US was the wettest since pre 1895.  Some 11 of the 15 wettest years on record have occurred since 1960 and many times following those REALLY wet years were particularly poor crops. Those years were 1974, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1993, and 2012.

St Louis river level ~STEADY ~ at +15.2′ and forecast to be 14.7′ by  1/30.

 CORN

UNCHANGED

 Weak Export Inspections and lower crude oil put a lid on early gains.   Monday’s Inspections were near the upper end  at 23.6 vs expectations of 19 – 24 mill bu but still shy of the 40.6 per week needed.  A poll from Reuters has the S Africa crop at 6.86 MMT, approx 800,000 larger than a similar survey from last week’s Bloomberg poll.  The USDA’s est is 8 MMT with imports of 1.5 MMT.   In SA, CONAB will sell up to 150 K MT of state-owned stocks in Mato Grosso, Goias, MGDS, and RGDS to help local  feed needs caused from dwindling producer sales  – on expectations of further currency weakness.  Funds ARE record short! 

BEANS     

UP 4

Lower on crude oil weakness, decent SA weather, and Export Inspections were disappointing.  Monday’s Inspections were 44.0 vs expectations of 47 – 53 mill bu.  AgRural estimates Brazil harvest at 1.5%, down from 3.5% last year and vs 2% average due to late planting and excessive rainfall. A larger crop may be on the way for Paraguay as Bloomberg’s est puts their bean crop at 9 MMT, vs last USDA at 8.8 and vs 8.1 last year.

WHEAT          

UP 6

Russia could institute export restraints until the new crop is available.  Export Inspections were only 6.9 vs expectations of 11-15 mill bu with 17.7 per week needed.