COMMENTARY 12/30/16

In SA, a big high pressure continues the hot dry for the NE of Brazil for the next 7 -10 days, especially Bahia. The rest of Brazil is amply wet.  To their S, dryness in Argentina ended last weekend.  More chances exist for showers there next week.

BETTER river levels…..

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 10.0′ and forecast 11.3by 1/4.  

CORN

UP 2

Export sales were within range at 37.7 mill vs expectations of 31 – 47 and 23 per week.  Mexico bought HALF of this week’s total!  Our four week avg is 51.4 mill and is a 22 yr high.  Unshipped sales too are at a 17 yr high going into the three day holiday weekend.  Argentina planting is 71% complete compared to 63% last week and 4 behind last year. The BA Exchange has Acres est at 4.9 mill HA, a 27% increase from last yr.  (Another incentive to switch corn acres to beans??….just sayin’……)

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 9% TW (5% LW), Bearish 48% (61% LW), Neutral 44% (33% LW)

BEANS     

DOWN 9

Very quiet.  There is some talk of concern that Argentina MAY not get ALL of their bean acres planted but Mato Grosso is expecting better yields at this point in the game.  Export Sales were slightly disappointing  at 35.8 vs expectations of 37-55 mill bu with only 8 needed per week. China was a big portion of that volume. Like in Corn, sales the last four weeks avg’d  57.5 mill/week and is a new 22 year high and might suggest Inspections should be around 60 mill a week for some while.  Meal Sales were above expectation AND solid at 252 vs 40-200 expected with 128 per week needed.  Mexico bought 145  with decent volume going to Vietnam and the Philippines. Oil was 18.9 K MT and near the top end of the 5-20 expectation.  Argentina is est to be 84% planted, 8 higher than last week but just behind 87% last year. Dryness in the states of S BA and La Pampa COULD lead to a smaller crop.

Bloomberg Trader BiasBullish 26% TW (6% LW), Bearish 39% (67% LW), Neutral 35% (28% LW)   <– BIG CHANGES!!

 

WHEAT

UP 3

Our HRW areas may turn drier as temps moderate nearby and the weaker $ helped support today.  Export Sales were STRIKINGLY good at 20.9 mill bu vs expectations of  7-18 with 9.2 per week needed.  China bought 6.3 of the total. The BA Exchange says Argentina’s mighty crop IS real by raising their est from 12.5 MMT to 15.0!! Acres too were increased from 4.3 mill hectares to 4.7 and compares to the last USDA est at 14.4.  Russia is a-wash in feed quality wheat.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 17% TW (12% LW), Bearish 39% (35% LW), Neutral, 44% (53% LW)