COMMENTARY 12/30/15 ***MORE CLOSURES!!

St Louis river level ~HIGH & STEADY~ at +41.2.2 and forecast to be 42.1 by  THUR 12/31   

(Flood Stage = 30.0′   –  MAJOR Flood Stage = 40.0′)

FORECAST:         12/30     12/31      1/1         1/2        1/3          1/4    Cresting expected FRI

                                 41.2′    42.1′      42.5′    41.7′   39.7′     36.0′

Good amounts of snow coverage across US wheat country should insulate against the cold. Additional rain/snow across the N half of the US will contribute to flooding of major interior rivers into next week.     In SA, Argentina has seen scattered rain as well as Central Brazil, S MGDS, Parana, and Santa Catarina.  Brazil’s dry areas should further improve into late week especially from Parana to Sao Paulo. S Brazil too should remain wet. Argentina is expecting timely rainfall warmer than normal temps the next two weeks.

CORN

DOWN 4

A higher US $ and cheap South American supply with Argentina relaxing its export taxes.  Expected water levels are doing about as predicted. Some secondary river levees ARE now succumbing to the pressure of high water and failing, although not terribly widespread yet. Forecasts are beginning early cresting and then getting ready to start the decline.  Currently over half of the Ohio River shippers are unable to load due to high water.   STL harbor should return to normal by mid next week.  A week of no loading should help strengthen basis basis short term.  The current corn price in Argentina $10-12 per metric ton CHEAPER THAN the US.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 24 – 31 mill bu with 27.3 needed per week.  The next crop report is out in TWO weeks!

BEANS     

UP 5

US producer movement remains slow, high water doesn’t help, and larger European crush needs are expected.   Oil World expects EU crush to increase 7.4% to 15.0 MMT.  So far YTD imports of US beans are up 12%.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 37 – 51 mill bu with 9.7 needed per week. Weak currency not always good as Brazil’s second largest publicly traded bean producer is trying to delay debt payment.  Some 90% is dollar denominated and INCREASED 31% (in the third quarter alone) to $250 million.  The CEO of Vanguarda Agro expects the Brazil crop to be 96 MMT this year due to dry weather.

WHEAT          

DOWN 5

Futures gave up its early gains despite isolated crop concerns around the globe, like the winter wheat freeze issues feared in Ukraine.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 9 – 17 mill bu with 10.7 needed per week.