COMMENTARY 12/29/16

In SA, a big high pressure continues the hot dry for the NE of Brazil for the next 7 -10 days, especially Bahia. The rest of Brazil is amply wet.  To their S, dryness in Argentina ended last weekend, turning rain deficits into surplus in just days.  More chances exist for showers there next week.

BETTER river levels…..

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 9.1′ and forecast 11.4by 1/4.  

CORN

UP 1

Quiet with a 3 cents trade range, almost feeling like….holiday mode.  Tomorrow’s belated Export Sales are expected to be 31 – 47 mill bu.  The EIA info showed a slight decrease in production and a stocks draw of 380K barrels, implying exports.

BEANS     

DOWN 4

Struggled to hold gains from the am due to some light Fund selling.  SA’s weather is not really threatening currently, while locally barge freight placements this week have been a little delayed from weekend fog over Christmas.  It feels though like things are getting back to normal as we get into the end of the week. Export Sales out tomorrow are expected to be 37 -55 mill bu.  The market is telling you, “it PAYS to plant beans this spring”.

WHEAT

UP 3

Wheat was the upside price leader today with a weaker US dollar the driver! Funds too did their part to and  were estimated buyers.  The BA Exchange est’s Argentine production at 15 MMT vs the prior est of 12.5 and the USDA est at 14.4. Export Sales are expected to be 7 -18 mill bu with 10.1 needed per week from here on out.