COMMENTARY 12/28/16

In SA, a big high pressure continues the hot dry for the NE of Brazil for the next 7 -10 days. To their S, dryness in Argentina ended over the weekend, turning rain deficits into surplus in just days.

BETTER river levels…..

St Louis river level QUENCHED for the time being! ~ at 8.8′ and forecast 10.9by 1/4.  

CORN

DOWN 7

No Fund buying today! We gave back yesterday’s gains to technical selling and the US dollar was stronger. Corn continues to be stuck in its trading range while basis in the east was fairly quiet.  China is cancelling some of their Jan ethanol business due to raising their import tariff comes at a time when we need all the demand we can get.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 8

No love from Fund buying today and the weather forecasts are similar to yesterday.  More rain is expected for Argentina now and and NE Brazil still dry. Early  harvest has started in N Mato Grosso and early yields are running very strong.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 8

Quiet with no Fund buying here either. Russia’s USDA equivalent released final Production numbers this morning with their crop est at a record 73.3 MMT vs the most recent USDA est at 72.  Current Russian export totals are short of their avg pace needed to reach their current 29 MMT (USDA) projections.  US wheat is the least expensive followed by Argentine wheat, when compared to that of Argentina. Larger production combined with the necessity to clear out old crop Black Sea bu’s ahead of next year’s crop should force Russian values lower and placing more price pressure on global wheat. The quality of US wheat remains to be a good which will help attract global business.