COMMENTARY 12/28/15 ***FLOOD WATERS THREATENING ST LOUIS SERVICE

St Louis river level ~RISING RAPIDLY~ at +37.9 and forecast to be 44.8 by  THUR 12/31  (Flood Stage is 30.0)  

**HIGH WATER – DELUGE IS CLOSING STL RIVER FACILITIES!!!!

FORECAST:         12/29     12/30     12/31      1/1         1/2

                                 39.4′    43.6′      44.8′    44.2′   42.5′

Further forecasts calling for Cresting Wed/THUR   –>THIS IS RECORD SETTING POTENTIAL. ~STAY TUNED~

In the Central US, the big rain maker exits tonight, allowing transportation logistics to stabilize over the next couple days AFTER the Miss River crests Wed into Thurs.  Time will tell how long river logistics are displaced.  In South America, dry N Brazil bean areas get a break late this week w/normal rains expected the first 10 days of Jan.  Wet areas to the S stay wet for the next two weeks and an unsettled pattern continues in Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay.  Argentina expects wide spread coverage without severe heat developing.

 

CORN

DOWN 4

Exports continue to disappoint.  Monday’s Export Inspections were at the low end of 22.5 mill bu vs expectations of 22 – 27 mill. and –>39.7/week needed!   Good volumes went to Mexico 10.8, Japan 4.0.  Our YTD total is down 32% from last year! China has reportedly purchased 3-5 yc cargos from the Ukraine for delivery Mar/May. The current corn price in Argentina $10-12 per metric ton CHEAPER THAN the US.

BEANS     

DOWN 10

A lot of Brazil’s dry areasrecv’d ¼” – 1” accum over the weekend and many parts are expecting average precip this week with exception to RGDS and Santa Catrina. The Commodity Weather Group forecasters expect as much as 4” of rain for parts of Brazil this week, reducing thoughts that the recent dryness will cut as much off yields.Today’s Export Inspections towards the lower end of the 48-59 trade range at 51.5 with 21.6 needed. A huge volume went to the EU 13.3, and China was disappointing at 28.3.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 1

Supported early by the deluge of rain in the Central US SRW areas but yc/ysb weakness eroded as the session progressed.  Export Inspections were 11.2 mill bu, towards the low end of expectations of 10-15 with 16.7/week needed.