COMMENTARY 12/27/16

In SA, widespread accum of an 1” plus for Central and S Argentina over the weekend, especially on Sun where some locations got oven 3″.  These areas should now have a chance to dry over the next 5-7 days, with seasonal temps. NE Brazil is still hot and dry.

 

BETTER river levels…..

St Louis river level QUENCHED for the time being! ~ at 8.7′ and forecast 11.5by 1/3.  

CORN

UP 9

A belated Christmas present.  SA weather is non threatening.  Fundamentally the only needy is the NE Brazil first-crop and their forecast remains dry and warmer than normal next 10 days.  Today’s Export Inspections were in range at 38.2 mill vs expectations of 31 – 38 mill bu.  Some are expecting some potentially lower feeding on the next report come Jan 12th.  If true, could be a bit stagnating for futures as folks become reluctant sellers.

BEANS     

UP 25

Say!  Someone was buying today.  We gained back in one day almost half of what we lost last week. While some areas of Argentina have received some rains other areas have received less than desired. NE Brazil is still dry and that creates a scenario where our big US supply has a hiccup or two as the market determines which theory is more correct.  After the holiday weekend, US demand continues to be solid. Our weekly Export Inspections were 62.8 mill bu vs expectations of 51-71.

 

WHEAT

UP 16

Fundamentals are still fairly quiet, short covering was today’s driver. Export inspections were above expectations at 19.1 mill vs 11 -18 for expectations.  Weekend rains for the HRW belt didn’t help to improve the dry conditions in the extreme SW. Black Sea wheat is still the origin of choice.  Funds are still carrying a huge short which could bring more surprises similar to today’s.