COMMENTARY 12/23/15

It’s the same forecast, below normal rain and above average heat affect N Brazil the next 7-10 days.  There is a fair amount of uncertainty but seasonably-heavy rain is likely in driest N areas of Brazil Jan 1-5th.  S Brazil and Paraguay’s forecast continues wet as storm clusters continue to impact the region.  The Argentine expects no change warm and wet.   

St Louis river level HIGH at +26.9 and forecast to be 28.2 by  12/28  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   This does NOT take into account that an additional 3 – 6″ are forecast for the weekend.

CORN

DOWN 1

Weaker on lack of foreign demand.  Funds sold an est 2,000 contracts, their total for the week to -14,000. The US $ was up over 100 pts today as well.  Domestic coverage is said to be good into Jan 1.  Ethanol production fell 27 Kbpd to 973, more than the trade was suggesting.  Despite that drop, our nationwide inventories rose 65 K to 20.39 mb. Large inventories building on the East Coast and Gulf. Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 20 -28 mill bu for the week with at least 27 needed.  The current corn price in Argentina $10-12 per metric ton CHEAPER THAN the US.

BEANS     

DOWN 4

The South American crop size vs demand appears to have won today.  Heavy rain in S Brazil and Paraguay continue to be the talk and sporadic rainfall is forecasted over the dry areas of N and Central Brazil over the next 7 days. Tomorrow’s Export Sales Report is expected to be 30- 40 mill bu for the week.  We are still waiting to see what the SA farmer does with his unsold bu’s and how the value of the Peso affects his decision.  High water and slow demand had weaker basis nearby with more rain in the forecast.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 2

Weak despite talks of an Egyptian tender.  We are seeing excess US moisture and very warm temps for much of the SRW region. This is creating concern of drowned spots and if we were to get cold that could cause winter kill with no snow cover. There is lots of time to kill the wheat crop!  It is the holidays and a meager 9 – 17 mill bu are expected for Export Sales tomorrow.